What if Fox Quit Broadcast TV?

It isn't every day that a major national TV network threatens to become a cable-only subscription channel — but that's exactly what happened Monday. News Corp President Chase Carey told broadcasters at the NAB Show in Las Vegas that his company was considering "converting the Fox broadcast network to a pay channel" — that is, going over to basic cable, and denying cable-free Americans (all 50 million of them) their weekly fixes of American Idol, Glee or The Simpsons.

Why on Earth would Fox do that? Because of the threat posed by Barry Diller's startup Aereo, which won a legal battle last week allowing it to continue doing what it does. And what it does is rebroadcast regular TV — you know, the kind you get over the airwaves — to tablets, smartphones and the web. A 40-hour dual-channel DVR is included in the deal. The cost to you: $12 a month.

Whatever the merits of the case, and there are arguments on both sides, Carey made something of a tactical blunder. His response amounted to a publicity coup for Aereo, a company most of us haven't heard of (and which currently only operates in New York). The startup seized the moment with a rousing press release:

When broadcasters asked Congress for a free license to digitally broadcast on the public's airwaves, they did so with the promise that they would broadcast in the public interest and convenience, and that they would remain free-to-air. Having a television antenna is every American's right.

Carey's threat was clearly aimed at the courts and Congress; his hypothetical was preceded with a darkly threatening "if we can't have our rights properly protected through those legal or political avenues".

But what if judges and politicians called his bluff? What if the Fox broadcast network went dark and became a regular cable channel?

Well, first of all, they'd have to find an awful lot of content from somewhere. Right now, Fox itself offers around 20 hours a week of programming; just enough to be considered a network by the FCC. Nearly all of that programming goes into prime time; unlike its sister networks, it has no daytime soaps or quiz shows, nor any content after the local news at 10pm.

Goodbye Fox, Hello Univision

The shortfall is made up for by 200 local affiliates, one of which you probably watch Fox on. And speaking of those affiliates: what would happen to them if Fox had no broadcast service to, well, be affiliated with?

That's a very good question. In a statement after Carey's remarks, Fox was careful to clarify that such a move would only happen "in collaboration with both our content partners and affiliates."

But in a world where Fox was cable-only, what could an over-the-air affiliate possibly do? Run nonstop commercials for pay TV? Would Fox be effectively paying these stations to go dark?

Besides, the vast majority of those affiliates (all but 17) are free agents: they can choose to carry another broadcaster's content if they wish. And there's no shortage of suitors out there. Two-year-old network The CW, jointly owned by CBS and Warner, is lean and hungry. Who wouldn't want to claim the crown of America's fourth broadcast network?

And then there's Univision, the fast-growing Spanish language channel, currently carried by 68 affiliates. In an increasing number of markets, Univision boasts higher prime time ratings than NBC. It has the money, it has far more content (plenty of daytime telenovelas) and it has the audience. It even started carrying English subtitles last year. In the race to replace Fox, Univision would be well in the lead.

Spanish-language programming taking over from Rupert Murdoch's prime time shows? It sounds like the worst nightmare of a Tea Party conspiracy theorist, but it could well come to pass if Carey carried out his threat. Which is why we're pretty sure it's all bluster. The money is too good for Fox to leave it on the table.

Image via iStockphoto, pxel66