The unspoken battle between HBO and Netflix got a little uglier on Thursday when it was revealed that the premium cable channnel had stopped offering DVDs to Netflix at a discount.
As first reported by the The New York Times and later confirmed by both companies, the volume wholesale discounts that HBO used to offer Netflix are no more. The change took place at the first of the year.
Although Netflix remains committed to offering HBO titles to its rent-by-mail customers — the company can simply acquire the latest releases of Boardwalk Empire and True Blood via other retail outlets — this move underscores a trend we've written about before: The content battle taking place between online streaming and TV Everywhere, the initiative from content providers to offer their products directly to subscribers online.
Brad Adgate, senior vice president and director of research at Horizon Media doesn't think HBO's decision to refuse discounts on its discs will have much of an impact on Netflix's subscriber base, in part because "DVDs are kind of on its way out and Netflix has moved its core business to streaming." He describes the relationship between HBO and Netflix as "frienemies," noting that "they are competitors but also offer the other a source of revenue."
According to Adgate, the real challenge is the success of HBO's streaming app, HBO Go, and the broader impact that might have on Netflix's new core business.
HBO Go vs. Netflix
HBO's parent company, Time Warner, has famously refused to license its popular and critically acclaimed content to Netflix (excepting early HBO programming like The Larry Sanders Show that are bound under different home-video agreements). Instead, HBO has pursued its own TV Everywhere initiative with HBO Go.
HBO Go is an app that offers subscribers access to current HBO programming along with a back catalog of original series. This content is available on iOS, Android, Roku and video game consoles. HBO Go is a huge hit, with more than 5 million downloads in 2011. Time Warner Cable and Cablevision, two early TV Everywhere holdouts, have both agreed to start support HBO Go in 2012.
As I've argued in the past, the success of HBO Go has shown content owners that they don't necessarily have to bypass traditional distribution platforms like cable; instead content owners can augment their current cable deals with online/tablet/phone access.
The Content Battle Continues
When it comes to content, Netflix is in a bit of a catch 22. On the one hand, it needs a viable, robust and ever-increasing library of streaming content to keep its customer base. On the other hand, the success of Netflix — and indeed the broader success of Hulu Plus, HBO Go and online subscription in general — has made acquiring content much more expensive.
As Adgate pointed out, Netflix's deal with Starz expires next month. When the Starz agreement ends, Netflix will lose its streaming access to almost all of its Walt Disney, Pixar and Sony Pictures content. Netflix has tried to spin the loss, pointing out its content deals with AMC Networks and DreamWorks Animation, but as Adgate pointed out, the company is now paying the same amount for a small selection of titles that it used to pay for an entire year's worth of Starz content.
Adgate thinks Netflix's next step will be to sell advertising "similar to the way Hulu does and what YouTube is trying to do" and in the process "create a second revenue stream" in addition to subscriber fees. Adgate argues that while many compare Netflix to ad-free pay cable à la HBO, the better comparison is traditional cable networks like FX or ESPN. As Adgate notes, "Consumers already pay $5 a month for ESPN and you get ads with that."
It's an interesting proposition. While Netflix might have a hard time integrating advertising into its main catalog of titles, the company is increasingly investing in original programming. Its first original series will debut next month, with future projects — including the continuation of Arrested Development to follow into 2013.
Viewers Still Love Netflix
Of course, even with the content growing pains, viewers still love Netflix. The company reported 2 billion hours of streaming content was consumed at the end of 2011. Analyst Richard Greenfield told Variety that by his estimations, that would make Netflix the 15th most watched network.
The real question is, what impact will new content deals (or a lack of deals) have on these viewership numbers.
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