Roy Taylor is a GM and EVP at Hollywood-based MasterImage 3D. You can follow him on Twitter @Roy_Masterimage.
There's a lot of discussion these days about the viability of 3D and what the future holds for it.
Is it a gimmick? A trend? Or is it the next great frontier in movie making?
As someone in the business of 3D, I'd like to share some thoughts on why I think it's here to stay, and in a big way.
1. 3D Sales Are Strong and On the Rise
First, let's look at data from Box Office Mojo, which shows U.S. sales results for 3D. By selecting the data from these box office returns, we can see that the top 50 3D films in the U.S. have grossed more than $8 billion, and that the top 10 films since Sept. 1 this year have grossed more than $480 million already.
It's true that a recent Morgan Stanley report indicates that overall, 3D films are generating less per title YTD over 2010, down from 54% to 43%. However, these numbers do not consider that the biggest movie season of the year has yet to pass. Thus, the Morgan Stanley numbers do not include any of the top movies below:
Source: BoxOfficeMojo.com, Dec. 6
A recent article from Slate uses numbers (although without references for source) that show the returns for theater owners. Revenues are compared per theater for 2D vs. 3D. The Slate piece states that Avatar made $26,800 per theater in 3D vs. $15,800 for 2D, but that this positive ratio for 3D has fallen steadily since, citing a negative ratio for Toy Story 3 and others.
The per screen analysis is misleading because we do not know what size auditoriums were being used. $10,000 for a 250-seat cinema is not the same as $10,000 for a 400-seater. Each theater owner will adjust the number of screens showing 3D vs. 2D to achieve the best mix for his customers. As reported in Box Office Pro Magazine (Dec. 2011 issue, "The Number of the Beast"), we know that Harry Potter 7.2 sold 25% more in 3D than Transformers 3 on only 2% more screens, for example. What's more, 3D screen growth has been up 102.6% this year and there are now 12,738 screens in 3,015 locations in the U.S. alone.
A fairer snapshot is this one below, which shows the relative performance of different 3D movies over the summer. The green boxes highlight 3D outperforming 2D on a per-screen basis.
Source: Box Office Pro Magazine
Now, let's consider the ratio of success for a 3D movie. According to numbers available from False Creek Productions, while there were fewer 3D films that reached a gross of $1 million+ in 2010, a significantly higher percentage of them reached the top 20 of that year.
Source: False Creek Productions
2. 3D Theater Installations and 3D Movie Production Are on the Rise
According to a Sept. 20 report from IHS Screen Digest, there are now more than 30,000 3D-enabled theaters in the world and new installations are reported across all regions.
Source: IHS Screen Digest
The report also shows that 3D now averages 3.1 new releases internationally per month, up from two per month in 2010. BoxOffice.com lists 38 3D films confirmed for release in 2012, and many more are rumored. In addition, the list of respected movie producers and directors now making films in 3D continues to grow:
- Martin Scorsese – Hugo
- Steven Spielberg – The Adventures of Tin Tin
- Baz Luhrmann – The Great Gatsby
- Tim Burton – Frankenweenie
- Peter Jackson – The Hobbit
Among many others.
3. 3D Gets Favorable Reviews
Recently, there have been extremely positive reviews about new movies due for the 2011 holiday season. Importantly, they are from directors who are new to shooting in 3D, including Spielberg, Scorsese and Tim Burton. The Sun newspaper in the UK notes about Spielberg's Tin Tin:
"This is the first time Spielberg has used the 3D performance-capture technology which proved such a hit in 2009 sci-fi wonder Avatar and beautiful tricks abound — such as merging into a scene via a water bubble. But unlike in Avatar, everything is digitally animated. It is somewhere between Pixar and live action — a new level of computer reality. While too many films use 3D as a cheap afterthought, Spielberg has seen its true worth for immersing the audience in another world."
For Scorsese's new movie Hugo, CinemaBlend wrote:
"Scorsese looks at the people who call 3D a gimmick, compares us to those who thought motion pictures were a fad a century ago, then goes on to show us what's probably the most gorgeous live-action 3D film ever made. The 3D isn't just a new cinematic trick for Scorsese to play with, but inherently tied to the narrative, a key element that shines up everything else around it."
4. 3D Is Getting Better
The Slate piece refers to reviews from rottentomatoes.com and its scoring system to show that 3D films are declining. The piece points out that of the 32 movies in 3D, the ratings have dropped 41%. Presumably, the score for The Lion King in 3D was overlooked at 89% as was the recent score for Hugo at 94% — both big hits for 3D. Or how about Puss In Boots 3D, at 82% — a film that has so far done $142 million at the box office?
Admittedly, Hollywood is still learning how to use the format creatively. Popular Mechanics notes, "The form is still new, the technology is still evolving, and the technology hasn't caught up to the potential of the form."
Most recent 3D movies have wide action shots, which are not ideal for the format. Shooting from far away limits the effectiveness of 3D imagery and fast-moving objects don't usually render well. But increasing the frame rate from 24 frames-per-second up to 48 or even 60 — James Cameron's next big technological push — will help with that.
Peter Jackson's video blog (see above) on the filming of The Hobbit in 3D is an excellent example of how 3D is going to continue to improve.
What do you think? Are you satisfied with the quality of current 3D films? Which 3D movies are you looking forward to in 2012?
Image courtesy of iStockphoto, kryczka
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