Startups have an inherently predictive quality. As the innovation engines of the economy, what startups figured out in 2011 will likely appear on other sectors' trend lists in 2012.
And if it doesn't, it will be replaced quickly. For instance, in 2011 group messaging both took off — with more new companies than we could count — and all but shut down, as the startups with most traction were scooped up and repurposed by giant companies.
Things change quickly in the startup world, which makes for trends more exciting and more distinct than any other industry. These six trends in particular stood out to us in 2011. Let us know what you'd add to the list in the comments below.
1. The Evolution of the Checkin
Startups that once counted on location-based checkins becoming mainstream quietly hung their hopes elsewhere this year. Foursquare became more like Yelp with a revamped website that focuses on discovery. SCAVNGR launched a payment app called LevelUp that has nothing to do with checking in. And Facebook Places dropped its Deals feature, becoming a location-tagging service for other content. Brightkite, the company that pioneered the place checkin, pivoted from checkins to group messaging in late 2010.
The checkin isn't dead — it's changing. Several startups embraced the idea of the preemptive checkin. Companies such as Hotlist and Ditto encourage people to broadcast not what they're doing, but what they are going to do — while there is still time to adjust, based on friends' plans and merchants' deals.
Other startups innovated on the implicit checkin. An iPhone app called Arrived, for instance, lets selected friends know when you arrive at certain places, no checkin required. LevelUp uses payment as a checkin, presenting merchants the opportunity to reward loyal customers.
2. The Rise and Fall of Independent Group Messaging Apps
The chatter surrounding group messaging apps at South by Southwest was so loud that some wondered whether one of the startups would emerge from the conference as the new Twitter.
Buzz subsided as most of the prominent group messaging apps were acquired by large companies. Slide turned out Google's group messaging app, Disco; Beluga was acquired by Facebook; and Groupme was acquired by Skype. Prospects for remaining apps dwindled later in the year when Apple announced it would be including a group messaging feature in iOS 5.
3. Birchbox for Everything
Birchbox didn't discover the subscription product model when it launched in 2010, but it did make subscription service sexy. And just as Groupon unleashed a frenzy of daily deal sites after its launch in 2008, Birchbox helped make 2011 a year filled with new subscription services for just about everything.
Want monthly shipments of staple items like toothpaste? boxers? babies? dog products? Startups that launched in 2011 can supply them.
And lest there be an unoccupied niche in subscriptions, five-month-old startup Memberly makes setting up these new services a DIY project.
4. Peer-to-Peer Marketplaces Get Local and Real-Time
Ebay and Amazon established the first peer-to-peer marketplaces, and they're great — unless you're selling something such as a service, a living space or a last-minute concert ticket that can't make it by mail. This year, mobile phones, GPS and services like Craigslist combined to make real-time and location-based history. These factors make possible new peer-to-peer marketplaces for anything from car rentals to odd jobs (see Zaarly and Taskrabbit).
5. Online Goes Offline
Remember when online dating was creepy? A study released last year by Match.com claimed that 17% of couples married in the previous three years met each other via an online dating site. We're increasingly comfortable overlapping our online and real lives, and web services that figure out how to make our real lives easier will do well.
Airbnb raised $112 million to take its peer-to-peer marketplace global, and car rental company Zipcar successfully went public.
When we talked with co-founder of AOL Steve Case last year, he had a lot to say about the future of Internet startups: "In the last few years, and I think the coming decade, [it] really will be about — now that the Internet really is ubiquitous, and people are relying on it in increasingly habitual kind of ways — how do you not just create Internet businesses, but create businesses that can impact every aspect of people's lives using the internet as a tool?"
This year, a flood of promising startups — from peer-to-peer learning startup Skillshare to on-demand car wash service Cherry — found new ways to answer that question.
6. NYC Rises In the Tech Scene
New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg has been trying very hard to raise New York City's profile in the tech scene. In 2011, he and others succeeded in doing so.
The city appointed its first chief digital officer, Rachel Sterne, in January. That same month, prestigious startup accelerator TechStars announced its first New York City class. Bloomberg TV filmed that class's experience for a documentary series that premiered in September.
Meanwhile, some of the web's best-known companies increased their presence in New York City — likely bringing investor money and capable engineers with them. Twitter opened its first official New York City office on Madison Avenue, and Facebook announced it would open an engineering office.
The city hopes to attract and start more of these sorts of Internet companies by helping Cornell build a 2.1-million-square-foot tech campus on Roosevelt Island. When it announced the campus in December, the city said it was considering offering a similar deal to other universities looking to build similar campuses in New York City.
Just in case anybody had missed New York City in the tech scene this year, a group of 12 startups got together to rub it in a bit. They made a calendar, titled "Only in the Alley" to mark its culmination.
What else in the startup world caught your eye this year? What will be left in the dust?
Images courtesy of iStockphoto, mbortolino, arakonyunus
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